Saturday, May 10, 2008

Can the fight for the democratic nomination deal the party a knockout blow?

The 2008 presidential election is a historic one for our country, and the battle for the Democratic Party’s nomination is a big reason for that. Whether the party nominates Hillary Clinton or Barak Obama, we will achieve an important milestone in American politics: the nominee will be the first woman or the first African-American nominated by a major political party for our nation’s presidency. Either of these possibilities are an exciting prospect, but the hard fought nature of this campaign and its effects on the nominee’s chances in the fall, may not lead to a Democratic win.
The most obvious problems for the Democrats with the extended nomination fight are money and time. Both candidates are spending large amounts of both in their attempt to win enough delegates to ensure the nomination. This money and time would be better spent against Republican Party nominee John McCain, who has had the luxury of a relatively short road to his win. McCain is now able to focus his efforts on building his war chest for the election in November, and can even take a few shots at the Democrats while they fight amongst themselves.
While perhaps less obvious, the bigger danger to the Democrats may be the divisions that this drawn out contest could potentially leave behind. A party can generally unite after a particularly tough campaign, but this election battle has a peculiar twist. There are not enough delegates up for grabs in the remaining Democratic primaries, so neither candidate has the possibility of locking up the nomination prior to the convention. When this situation arises, the party’s so-called “superdelegates” will decide the election. These superdelegates are members of the party elite, and not surprisingly, are mostly white. If they give the nod to Clinton, then African-American voters may well feel disenfranchised. While it’s exceedingly unlikely that this sense of disappointment will cause black voters to choose McCain, it is a distinct possibility that it could keep some away from the polls. In a presidential race that is likely to be close, the Democrats do not need any of their core members staying home on election day.
Given the current political climate, the Democrats have their best chance since Bill Clinton of winning the White House, but they will still face a tough fight from the Republicans and John McCain. With this long, bloody contest for their party’s nomination, the Democrats may have unwittingly landed the first blow to themselves.

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